What Will Your Plate Look Like in 2050?
It’s a Sunday and, as usual, you make your way to the town square; no, you’re not there to submit some useless bureaucratic forms. The year is 2050, and you’re waiting in line, with everyone else, for the emergency food rations. The line seems endless and, if you’re lucky, you will make it to the front for your daily ration of a cup of rice and a piece of bread before they run out. How did this happen, how did we get here? Though this scenario may seem far-fetched for developed countries, for many developing countries, this may be the reality. To understand the problem, we must look at the past and why the global agricultural industry has failed to keep up with demand.
Food insecurity and starvation have always existed on some scale throughout human history. It is only starting in 1900 though, that we see a seven-fold increase in population. This type of growth is unprecedented and required increasing crop production and yields to meet demand. This, however, did not happen. According to foodaidfoundation.org, in 2018 795 million people did not have enough food to live a healthy life. Although 795 million people were food insecure, the distribution of where these people live is heavily skewed toward developing and poor countries. This begs the question: why are these developing countries facing agricultural issues while developed countries, such as the US, are not?
One of the biggest agricultural issues, in developing countries, is the rapidly increasing population. By 2020, it is predicted that the population will be around 8 billion, and with 795 million people who are food, insecure things will only get worse. By 2050 it will be 9.8 billion, according to UN estimates. If the proportion of people who are food insecure remains the same, then 973 million will be food insecure. There are two types of populations: High-density populations (India, China) and Low-density populations (US, Canada). Countries with high-density face issues like smaller farm sizes, pollution, greater demand for inorganic fertilizers, some crop yields are not high, and farm income is lower. For low-density populations, the main issue is finding enough arable land to farm; countries such as Russia are low-density, but the majority of their land is not arable.
One potential solution to these problems is vertical farming. Vertical farming is a form of controlled environment agriculture (CEA) and consists of a building in which each floor works as arable land. This increases the total amount of hectares we can farm as well as the types of crops we can grow. CEAs solve all of the major population issues faced by farmers but comes with some issues of its own. The main issue is that you cannot take advantage of natural resources, such as water and sunlight. To correct this, the CEAs control the temperature, pump water, and use artificial lighting, which requires a large amount of energy and money. Vertical farms cost $39 million to build and $27 per square foot in operating costs per year. These are significant obstacles and prevent them from being built worldwide.
Another obstacle faced by the agricultural industry is pollution and climate change. Because of Pollution and climate change, we not only have to worry about the quantity of food we are producing but the quality as well. Climate change causes soil degradation which affects the yield of the crop; according to the USDA, land degradation, which includes soil erosion and desertification, lowers crop yields by 50%. To test for soil degradation, farmers take soil samples, which take around 2–3 weeks to get a soil sample. Because of the delay in receiving results, soil composition can change and yields could be lowered.
To combat soil degradation and the effects of climate change on crop yields, there are two solutions. One potential solution is vertical farming; during vertical farming, the soil and climate are both controlled, effectively eliminating airborne pollution as well as soil erosion. Another potential solution could be near real-time soil sensors. With near real-time soil sensors, farmers could respond to soil degradation much quicker and, thus, increase crop yields and productivity. Although sensors are a much cheaper alternative to vertical farms, they do not solve soil erosion.
In developed countries, such as America, there are very few financing issues. American farmers have a good support structure and are able to apply for federal loan programs, bank loans, and subsidies. Because of these financial programs, even small farmers are able to use advanced equipment, technology, and fertilizers to increase yields and improve quality. Although this is the case, awareness needs to be raised about the availability of such programs. However, this is not the case in developing countries. In developing countries, they have no financial support structures and must fund themselves. This results in less advanced equipment, less fertilizer use, lack of education for new techniques, and lower crop yields. As a result, in 2016 the average Indian farm was producing around 1700 pounds less per hectare versus the global average. There are two possible solutions to the financing gap experienced between developed and developing countries; either the government will have to become more involved, offering subsidies and financing options, or a private group will need to provide loans. However, in addition to these loans, there will need to be education provided to ensure yields increase.
It’s a Sunday and, as usual, we are meeting at Starbucks to get our pink drinks and chatting about current events. The year is 2050, but there are no food lines. No one is going hungry, the stock market is climbing, and world productivity is on the rise. The actions we took in 2020 addressed the impending food crisis that the world faced. The scenario just described is only possible if we address the concerns facing the source of our food. Even those in developed countries will be significantly affected if developing countries, such as India and China, are stunted by large, starving populations.
Sources:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uoHz0Wh4rCMv0uHdFgHIxg38KRO2YnUuK4OGPXfmncY/edit?usp=sharing
